# Bayesian probabilities

• You should use evidence and what you know about evidence based management to answer these questions.
• these questions are in the context of the novel coronavirus, also known as COVID-19. You’ll need to use the internet to look around for evidence in some cases.
• Ihave bolded certain words in the question as a clue for your.

1. Some people have suggested that 5G wireless signals are the cause of the coronavirus. Evaluate the evidence about this claim, and use it to justify whether or not 5G is likely the cause of the coronavirus.

2. From an evidence-based perspective, why should people believe that social distancing works?

3. The president said the following at a March press conference. “I would view it as something that just surprised the whole world. Nobody knew there would be a pandemic or epidemic of this proportion.” Evaluate evidence as to whether anyone knew, could have known, and/or should hve known that a global pandemic was a serious possibility.

4. Some people have suggested that coronavirus originates from bats. Is there scientific evidence to support this claim? If so, describe and cite this evidence that supports this claim. If not, discuss the evidence or lack thereof that refutes it. Given the evidence, what solution would you implement to prevent bat-based coronavirus outbreaks in the future? Be sure to incorporate evidence into your decision making process.

5. Bayesian probabilities are about trying to determine the probability that something is true or false given the evidence, and updating those claims as new evidence becomes available. At one point, it was reported that the virus only seriously affected older people, specifically the elderly. What evidence led to that claim? Has posterior evidence influenced the degree to which that claim seems true? What other evidence might cause you to update the probability that the claim that “the virus only seriously affects older people” to be true?

6. Organizations and the individuals within them generate and evaluate evidence. What kind of decisions are university faculty, staff, and students making in response to the coronavirus: routine, non-routine, or hypercomplex/novel, or some combination? Support your answer.

7. Some people have claimed that malaria drugs such as hydroxychloroquine could be an effective treatment for COVID-19. Assess the veracity of this claim based on evidence. What do organizations and practitioners What would be the best way to assess the effectiveness of malaria drugs on coronavirus-related health outcomes?

8. Using only an evidence-based perspective–not politically-motivated reasoning–evaluate the effectiveness leadership of the President of the United States in handling the pandemic.

9. From an evidence-based perspective, answer the following question: Why have there been so few deaths in San-Francisco due to coronavirus?

10. Despite the availability of evidence, some people have dismissed the evidence, or behaved in ways that are counter to what the evidence indicates. For example, some people have chosen to have large gatherings and meetings, while a group of University of Texas students chartered a plane to Cabo San Lucas for spring break in March–and 44 of the 70 students have now been sickened by the coronavirus. Why do people ignore evidence or fail to appraise the evidence from organizations and other sources correctly? What possible things could be done to help people accept and use evidence?

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